All seems well with the Arizona economy and the housing market in particular. Home valuations have stayed fairly strong and mortgage rates have came back down from the highs we saw in the last quarter of 2018. So everything is great then, nothing to see here right? Well that might not be the case. The Reeves Team has decades of experience in the Arizona housing market and we are starting to see some early signs that point to a potential downturn in the near future. We are going to dive deep into the indicators we are looking at that point to some troubling times ahead. While the prices are currently maintaining at current levels, other key levels are starting to slip. The days on market, inventory and absorption rate are all trending in the wrong direction. We will break down what each of these means and show the graphs to help explain what we are seeing. You can always count on Troy Reeves and The Reeves Team to keep you informed in an always changing market.
Sold Days On Market
Days on market takes a look at how long it takes a home to sell. This is a key indicator of the housing market because it shows how long the average house is sitting before it is sold. As you can see from the chart above the days on market is trending upward at a fairly sharp pace. We went from around 60 days on market during October to nearly 75 for the month of February. This is certainly something to be concerned about. This is however only one data point we use to judge the market on The Reeves Team. It is also worth noting that this only takes into account homes that actually sell. If a home is listed for a long time but doesn’t actually close it will not be considered in this metric. So to get a better understanding of the big picture we also need to look at inventory.
As you can see from the chart above the Inventory has spiked up significantly as well in the month of February. Inventory lets us know how many homes are currently on the market in Arizona. If more people buy a home in a current month than list a home the inventory will go down. If more people put their home on the market than sell their home the number will go up. The inventory chart lets us know that more people have been putting their home on the market than there have been sales since April with a significant jump up in February. With more availability buyers will be able to be more choosy and prices could sink down.
The absorption rate does a great job of showing us the larger picture. It shows how long it would take for the current inventory to be sold off if there were no more listings. We had a low of about 2.2 months. Since then we have jumped up to nearly 3 months in February. The most concerning portion of this graph is the largest jump was from January to February. When you see large jumps like this its highly possible the trend may be reversing and we could soon be entering a buyers market.
Now lets take a look at prices. As we mentioned previously prices are holding up pretty well at this point. If this were the only metric you looked at you would think things may continue on like this for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately it does not tell the whole story. Prices much like days on market only show the homes that were sold. What this chart shows us at The Reeves Team is that sellers have not caught on to the changing market yet. Sellers have not started cutting prices yet, and because of that less homes are being sold which is causing the spike in the Inventory. In the coming months if there is nothing that changes you can expect the prices to start dipping as the inventory and days on market continue to climb.
What do you think of our analysis of the current market? Do you agree we could see a dip in prices or do you think we will continue to maintain our current levels? Let us know in the comment section below.